From Climate Faith to Energy Realism: A War I Didn’t See Coming
I was wrong. And I am furious.
For years, I stood on every platform and told everyone that green energy was our salvation. I told all that solar panels and wind turbines were the silver bullets. I told the policy makers that if we just banned oil fast enough, the climate crisis would be solved. I called anyone who doubted it a spokesperson for Trump and Big Oil. I sold all fossil fuel stocks from my equity portfolio.
Today, after straightjacket on strait of Hormuz, I’m eating crow. And it tastes like diesel and coal fumes.
I went in as a believer. I came out a skeptic—not because I hate the planet, but because thanks to Peter Zeihan’s “The End of the World is just the Beginning”, I finally looked at the actual physics and chemistry of how we live. I am angry at myself for lying to all. I am ashamed I didn’t read this data sooner.
We have been sold a fairy tale. Here is the brutal truth about why we are NOT leaving petroleum any time soon.
First: Oil isn’t just gas in a tank. It’s everything you own.
I used to think 80% of oil went to cars. Wrong. Nearly 20% of global oil demand is for petrochemicals—lubricants, bitumen, and the building blocks of modern life. Look around your room right now. Your shoes? Made possible by oil. Your phone case, your Intra Venous bag at the hospital, your detergent, your diapers, your tires, your insulation, your paint? All oil.
Here is the killer blow: moving away from these fossil-fuel inputs would cost ten times more and create a carbon footprint ten times larger. There is no “green” plastic. There is no solar-powered shoe factory. We either use oil, or we go back to living in a world without medicine, without packaging, without modern clothing. I am not willing to watch my family die of an infection because we banned petrochemical derived antibiotics.
Second: My EV is a toy compared to a diesel earth excavator, a JCB or a road roller.
I know I love my Ioniq 5. You may love your Tesla. But we have been lying about “heavy lifting.”
Oceanic shipping? There is no battery on planet Earth that can recharge a container ship in the middle of the Pacific. Heavy farm equipment? A combine harvester works 18-hour days during harvest. Batteries die in four hours. And to convert the entire global transport fleet to electric, we would need to double humanity’s current electricity generation. Doubling. Where does that power come from? More fossil fuels? We are running in circles.
Third: Without oil, billions starve. Today.
This is the one that broke me as I come from Food industry. I used to say “eat less meat to save the climate.” I was missing the forest for the trees.
Modern agriculture is a petroleum machine. Diesel runs the tractors. Oil is the primary ingredient for pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides. Without those chemicals, crop losses would be catastrophic. And natural gas—often a byproduct of oil drilling—is the central ingredient for nitrogen fertilizer. No fertilizer? No rice. No wheat. No feeding 8 billion people.
If we shut down oil refineries tomorrow to save the climate, we wouldn’t have a green utopia. We would have a famine within 12 months. I now refuse to be the activist who trades a warmer planet for a dead one.
Fourth: Green tech is geography’s lottery, not a solution.
I used to scream “Build more wind! More solar!” But here is the dirty secret: most of the world is neither windy nor sunny enough to make this work. In many regions, building a massive solar farm actually emits more carbon than it saves because of the concrete, mining, and shipping required. I live on the ground floor of a multi storey apartment building. I cant install a solar system. Can you?
And the intermittency? Oil is energy storage. You drill it, you refine it, you put it in a tank, and it sits there for months, ready to burn. The sun doesn’t always shine. The wind doesn’t always blow. But a barrel of oil works 24/7, rain or shine, hurricane or heatwave. Imagine the number and size of batteries to store electricity generated by solar or wind. Mind-boggling numbers. Then the grid. Where you put up industry grade solar system and where the electricity is consumed (cities) are miles apart. Long distances. Grid and tranmission wires need steel. Steel need mining and coal. Think of mining equipment. The list of materials and manufacturing powered by fossil fues is endless. Think of peak demand in summer nights and winter colds. Sorry sun doesn’t shine during nights. A diesel generator may perhaps help.
The shameful conclusion.
I became a non-believer because I finally realized that petroleum isn’t a “dirty fuel.” It is the foundation of civilization as we know it now. It allows us to ignore geography, to move mountains, to grow food in deserts, and to keep 8 billion people alive.
A sudden move away from oil without a replacement doesn’t cause a recession. It causes decivilization. A cascade of breakdowns where the grid fails, then the food system fails, then the hospitals fail, then the water pumps fail.
I am not saying “burn coal forever.” I am saying I was a fool for promising you a quick fix. Green energy is a supplement, not a replacement. And until battery density improves by a factor of ten, until we invent a non-petroleum plastic that costs the same, and until we find a liquid fuel as energy-dense as diesel…
We are oil’s tenants. And we aren’t moving out.
I’m sorry I lied to you. I’m angrier at myself than you could ever be. I am rebuking coal and oil stocks.
I am also buying Uranium stocks.
ELECTRICITY DERIVED FROM NUCLEAR ENERGY IS WHAT WILL SAVE US EVENTUALLY. IT IS CLEAN. IT IS COMPACT AND DENSE. IT CAN DO EVERYTHING THAT FOSSIL FUEL DO. JUST FEW TONNES REQUIRED ANNUALLY TO RUN CITIES AND COUNTRIES. JUST DO THE MATH. ASK CHATGPT.
Hiroshima and Chernobyl suddenly seems to be a lesser price to pay than total extinction.
Thanks to Trump – A former believer, now a furious realist.
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